It's been over a year since we published our first #DevOpsFriday5 and to celebrate we're publishing collections of our favourite answers to each of the questions - and have launched a whole new set for the twelve months ahead. This week we're tackling Question Four:
What's your prediction for what DevOps will look like in 2020?
Much like with the previous two questions, this question received numerous responses which although varying in some ways all managed to come under the sub-titles below. So we have grouped the questions under the appropriate sub titles below.
DevOps Will Be the Norm
“In 2020 I don't think DevOps will be such a topic of discussion because I think it will be pervasive. Everyone will be doing it without thinking because it's benefits will be well documented and accepted. I think the technology will continue to improve with things like Docker becoming more popular and more integral to the way DevOps pipelines operate.” Sam Marland
“A bit like the journey Agile has been on or even Social media, where historically agile and social media were seen as new or different, they are now just part of everyday life, and I think this is how DevOps will evolve and mature to in 2020.” Gareth Wharton
“By 2020 I would assume that "DevOps" will fall away as people and organisations will have learnt by then how to naturally arrange themselves to achieve a Continuous Delivery process, i.e. the Dev and Ops divide will not exist as all stakeholders will know how to work holistically to achieve business value through the end goal of delivering high quality Applications and Services to their end customers. Much of this will be enabled through the use of Cloud computing services, which enable organisations to focus on Innovation rather than managing infrastructure. So "DevOps" will become redundant but Continuous Delivery will be the norm." Dave Upton
"I think DevOps will be widely adopted and the silos between development and operations will be a thing of the past. Developers will have significant control over their IT environments and what they deliver to customers.” Paul Hancock
“I do not know what DevOps will be like in 5 years, but my hope is to see the DevOps movement and philosophies extend beyond the traditional "Developer" and "Operations" roles into marketing, management, and leadership. To be totally honest, I really hope the talk of "DevOps" diminishes. I hope that we reach a point where so many organisations are following DevOps principles that it becomes the norm. No longer will we require education, case studies, or blog posts because it will have been proven to be a successful strategy for organisation and individual happiness. It will be the standard.” Seth Vargo
“As DevOps/Agile implementations become the norm, the organisation will need to understand how to manage and scale this across their enterprise, ensuring we continue to deliver the most valuable software to all the stakeholders.” Kay Johnson
“It will be the norm -- as agile methodologies for software development have become already.” Olaf Kilian
“The default way for teams to collaborate and operate. The idea of a DevOps will further reach into business where they will be more involved with the IT function (DevOps isn’t just Dev and Ops).” Jonathan Fletcher
“It won’t be called DevOps, and it will just be the essence of the typical development and operation teams. Meaning the adoption will be high enough that we will not need to call it out as a specific thing. As far as technology, I think the mythical DevOps Hub will appear, and release automation will allow teams to release every commit, and QA advanced enough to test every release rapidly.” Chris Riley
“Maybe the word DevOps will cease to exist and it will just be business as usual by then. Enterprise organisations simply have to get faster at shipping software, and DevOps approaches (flat structures, polyskilled engineers, product aligned cross functionals teams) seem like the tool of choice for getting there. On the platform side, infrastructure is obviously going to be much more virtualised and programmable so agile infrastructure managed as code should also be well established by 2020.” Benjamin Wootton
“Like every other IT technology cycle it will be assimilated by the mainstream market as “the norm”. While people may not think it novel anymore, I think the principles of teams working closer together to deliver superior service or product to customers will be as important as ever. I think DevOps will ingrained in how IT and business is done.” Alan Shimel
“As businesses compete to release better quality products faster then DevOps will become the norm for software delivery. I hope that this expansion also means that companies embrace the core principle of cross-team collaboration and that this enhances the work experience as teams come together to improve output and become more invested in quality across the organisation.
"The tech geek in me wants to say that we'll have self-learning and self-healing systems that are capable of automatically analysing processes and business goals and adjusting on-the-fly for optimum output, although I'm not sure if this increased automation and machine-learning goes against my hopes for collaboration so I'm conflicted on this one!” John Harris
“DevOps will be the norm and we won't be talking about 'it' but IT orgs will be talking about new organizational models to better deliver ITaaS." Curtis Yanko
"Normal stacks in many businesses will start to resemble a layer cake with each layer able to be swapped out in seconds thanks to containerisation. This will make integration testing, upgrading and other tasks trivial to do. We will see standard development platforms building around this idea so that testing can prove that basic functions work before it is available to production and this will be a common task in the development workflow. Developers will build for horizontal scalability from the get-go as all their dev tools/platforms are hosted in the cloud. This will mean that dev and production are literally identical. DevOps experts will start to be rebranded as the cultural change outgrows the label. Many people will jump on the bandwagon telling everyone that they were doing this before it was cool with their x methods in the 90s/00s as a way to make it look like they aren't a latecomer to the party.” Mike Preston
“The practice of developers working highly collaboratively with operations folk will have become the norm, as will software-defined infrastructure and monitoring as a first-class concern. Organisations whose main revenue stream is enabled through software systems that do not follow these practices and principles will probably not be around in 2020.” Matthew Skelton
“That's a really tough one. If you consider the pace of change over the last 6 or so years then trying to predict forward is somewhat foolhardy. I would hope that the DevOps of 2020 will be unrecognisable insofar as it will simply have become 'the' way to do things - much as agile has become within current mainstream software delivery. We have to remember that the DevOps approach is nothing new; if you go back to the very early days of software engineering when programmers fed punch-cards into mainframes the system operators and the programmers had to and did work closely together. OK so it wasn't what we would consider highly collaborative and effective by today's standards but as a way of working it wasn't far off. Somewhere along the line we seem to have forgotten this and allowed fiefdoms to grow. In 2020 I would hope that these fiefdoms will be no more and engineers will be able to do what they do best - create and deliver solutions people want.” Paul Swartout
“DevOps will be ubiquitous within many organisations becoming the 'norm' and not just the next sexy idea. In order to accelerate time to market, and maintain market competitiveness; organisations need to find ways to innovate faster and DevOps has been shown to be extremely effective in achieving this.” Tom Levey
“In 2020 the concept of Continuous Delivery will be the norm for most organizations and by then we will all be on to something different. Even slower moving, bureaucratic organisations are embracing DevOps and continuous delivery so it is definitely in the mainstream. From 2020 there will be the onward exploitation of what DevOps has already realised – self-monitoring, self-healing, self-growing - and who knows? - self-developing, systems.” Craig Pearson
Containerisation Will Become More and More Popular for “DevOps” Organisations
“Dev what? Seriously though, it would appear that the promise of containers as the new packaging format could bridge the gap between infrastructure and development nicely. The Operation of these will still exist as a challenge though, we will still need to understand what we have delivered, what shared services the solutions being developed depend on and how to manage new delivery into this area. We have been talking about this for many years and I expect that we will continue to do so, perhaps with a shiny new name. I think that the DevOps movement (despite my grumpy old man semantics based comments) is a force for good and I think by 2020 the surviving companies will be the ones who are very in tune with how they are delivering IT promises to their customers. There will be new challenges for sure, not least the 5 billion devices (“things”) out there among the customer base, but I think good IT organisations will at least have positioned themselves to react better…I hope we’re not still defining DevOps by then :)” Rob Vanstone
“Ideally we’d develop directly against production. Non-production environments are wasteful but current development practices require them to minimise the risk of change in production. The community will continue to evolve processes and tools that reduce the need so many non-production environments. Testing in production is becoming common practice. This is particularly suited to media, entertainment and other non-regulated, non-transactional verticals.
The current trend around containerisation and microservices will significantly reduce the friction of moving code through the SDLC to production. However, this is a process and tooling solution that does not address culture and people. In 2020, I would expect DevOps as we know it today to only be relevant in the enterprise. Companies that fail to create working environments of ownership, accountability, trust and collaboration will find it very difficult to keep pace with the rate of innovation of their competitors.
As long as the introduction of change to production creates risk, there will always be friction between the roles of dev and ops. The goal therefore must be to create a working environment where business value can be introduced to production with no risk.” Richard Wadsworth
DevOps will have evolved and started to address different issues
“I'd like to see the scope expanded to also address Demand and Use of IT, in addition to the current Supply focus. At the moment, Agile has helped to improve how stuff is developed. And DevOps has extended this to get it into production quickly and reliably. But until the right demands are defined by the business, and until the users actually realise value from the IT investments by using the systems and services effectively and efficiently, we haven't closed the IT Value Circle. DevOps will constantly evolve, as I wrote in my Kill DevOps blog.” Mark Smalley
“Wow, that's only five years from now. I'd have to say businesses will probably end up taking a route of bimodal IT. The existing core systems will probably see very little impact from DevOps initiatives, as the goal of going bimodal is to limit the impact on an area that has demonstrated little ability to embrace change. The other side of bimodal is the formation of a team focused on delivering the digital presence for the business: mobile, web, cloud, etc. This team will leverage industry best practices formulated by the likes of Etsy and Netflix and will deliver in a powerful new way for businesses.” JP Morgenthal
“Oh, I love prediction questions! With the rapid pace of technology innovation, it’s always hard to predict the future. But from a high level, I see that the term DevOps will be used less and less. Clients and solution partners will begin to understand that while this term is useful today, it not all encompassing of what needs to be done. DevOps is part of a wider evolution in regards to enterprise IT that includes, Cloud, big data, analytics, software, Agile, business outcomes and ultimately digital. The reality is that all of these areas need to be considered and adopted by technology management leaders. So in 2020 I see more talk that focuses on digital experience delivery and see IT’s role starting to change from one of support to being a driver of commercial success. This will require IT to transform its approach to people, process and technology.” John Rakowski
“It will have evolved into something else. Probably some sort of loosely-coupled approach that extends well into other business areas and connects them cross functionally.” Kevin Behr
The Unicorns will still be transforming the industry whilst others are still playing catch-up
“There are a lot of similarities between DevOps and lean manufacturing implemented in the automotive space. Early adopters of lean manufacturing (Toyota, Hyundai, Honda) have enjoyed a price / loyalty / quality premium for the last 2+ decades. The late adopters (GM, Chrysler, Ford) are only now catching up and while you can argue that they are just as good as imports (and in some cases even better) they suffer from poor market perception. Which translates into a very real impact to the bottom line - when was the last time a domestic car commanded a rice premium over an import. If DevOps follows the same path, I think by 2020 we will have some early adopters that will enjoy the market premium for some time to come and the rest will be left playing catch up.” Mustafa Kapadia
“I’d like to think that in five years’ time DevOps will be done, but it’s just coming up to 5 years old now and, if we were to compare it to Agile, for example (which is very closely linked), the Agile manifesto was published in 2001 and thirteen years later there are plenty of organisations just starting Agile transformations now so it’s quite possible there’ll still be organisations starting out on DevOps projects in 2020. However, given how strategic IT applications and performance have become to organisational success, particularly with the explosion of social, mobile and big data, and how many start ups are disrupting and stealing traditional markets, it’s also possible as technological advances continue to accelerate that companies who don’t embrace these principles quick smart will get left behind and wither in the wake of their competition.” Helen Beal
If you want to take a look back at the first three question please click the links below:
Question One: What's Your Preferred Definition of DevOps?
Question Two: The Most Common DevOps Mistakes Made?
Question Three: How do you recommend an organisation new to DevOps start?
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